区域产业链供应链韧性与地方经济协同发展研究——以合肥经济圈为例 

摘要：在全球产业分工重构与外部冲击频发的背景下，区域产业链供应链韧性已成为影响地方经济可持续发展的关键因素，而韧性提升能否转化为区域内城市间的经济协同尚缺乏系统的实证检验。本文以合肥经济圈（合肥、淮南、六安、滁州、马鞍山、芜湖、桐城）为研究对象，构建“抵御—恢复—重构”三维产业链供应链韧性评价指标体系，采用熵权法测度 2011—2022 年各城市韧性指数，并以耦合协调度模型刻画韧性与经济协同发展的匹配关系；进一步运用空间自相关（Moran's I / LISA）识别韧性的空间集聚格局，并借助空间滞后解释变量（SLX）面板模型检验韧性对经济协同的直接效应与空间溢出效应。需要说明的是，因公开数据可得性限制，本文实证部分基于依据合肥经济圈现实特征构造的仿真面板数据，各项数值为方法框架的演示性结果，不代表真实统计发现。在该仿真数据上，分析流程呈现如下模式：（1）研究期内圈域整体韧性由约 0.66 演进至约 0.77，并呈“核心—沿江高值、西部外围偏低”的空间非均衡特征；（2）韧性与经济协同发展的耦合协调度由约 0.52 的勉强协调向约 0.70 的初级协调演进，二者呈同向变动；（3）在空间滞后解释变量（SLX）设定下，韧性与本地经济协同显著正相关（0.619，p<0.01），其空间滞后项系数亦为正（0.222，p<0.1），提示可能存在正向空间关联，上述方向在剔除核心城市、更换测度权重下保持一致。本文旨在提供一条“测度—耦合—空间检验”的可复用分析流程，并据此从强化核心节点、补齐外围短板、构建圈域协同网络三方面讨论政策含义。

关键词：产业链供应链韧性；经济协同发展；耦合协调度；空间溢出效应；合肥经济圈

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Regional Industrial and Supply Chain Resilience and Coordinated Local Economic Development: A Case Study of the Hefei Economic Circle

Abstract: Against the backdrop of global industrial restructuring and frequent external shocks, the resilience of regional industrial and supply chains has become a key determinant of sustainable local economic development. Whether improved resilience translates into economic coordination among cities within a region, however, remains empirically underexplored. Taking the Hefei Economic Circle (Hefei, Huainan, Lu'an, Chuzhou, Ma'anshan, Wuhu and Tongcheng) as the study area, this paper constructs a three-dimensional "resistance– recovery–reconfiguration" evaluation system for industrial and supply chain resilience, measures the resilience index of each city over 2011–2022 using the entropy weight method, and characterizes the matching relationship between resilience and coordinated economic development through a coupling coordination degree model. Spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I / LISA) is used to identify agglomeration patterns, and a spatial lag of X (SLX) panel model tests the direct and spillover effects of resilience on economic coordination. Because of data availability constraints, the empirical section is based on a simulated panel constructed to reflect the stylized features of the Hefei Economic Circle; all figures are illustrative results of the methodological framework rather than real statistical findings. On these simulated data, the workflow exhibits the following patterns: (1) overall resilience evolves from about 0.66 to about 0.77 with a spatially unbalanced "core-riverside high, western periphery low" pattern; (2) the coupling coordination degree evolves from barely coordinated (about 0.52) to primary coordination (about 0.70), moving in the same direction; (3) under a spatial lag of X (SLX) specification, resilience is significantly positively associated with local economic coordination (0.619, p<0.01), and its spatial lag term is also positive (0.222, p<0.1), suggesting a possible positive spatial association; these directions are consistent when excluding the core city and under alternative weighting. This paper aims to offer a reusable "measurement–coupling–spatial testing" analytical workflow, and discusses policy implications accordingly.

Keywords: industrial and supply chain resilience; coordinated economic development; coupling coordination degree; spatial spillover effect; Hefei Economic Circle

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